What it is
Most tokens launch with a fraction circulating and the rest locked for teams, investors, and treasuries — then unlock on schedule, expanding supply on fixed dates. This calculator models the math: enter the unlock size plus current circulating and total supplies, and see the new float, the dilution percentage, and what it implies for holders.
Unlocks are crypto’s most predictable price events, published in advance, ignored by most buyers. Checking the calendar before buying is free alpha that requires no prediction whatsoever.
Why decentralization matters
Unlock schedules reveal who a token really serves: broad, gradual community emissions decentralize over time, while cliff unlocks to insiders centralize selling power on calendar dates. A token 20% floated with monthly insider unlocks is a two-year distribution program from the public, whatever the website claims. Reading unlocks is reading the actual, on-chain ownership trajectory — the capital pillar in miniature.
How the formula works
New circulating supply equals current circulating plus unlock amount. Dilution percent equals unlock amount divided by new circulating, times one hundred — the share of the post-unlock float that didn’t exist as tradable supply before. Unlock amount can be entered directly or derived from a percent-of-total-supply figure. The model assumes constant demand (generous — unlocks usually coincide with weaker demand), so treat dilution as the minimum expected price pressure, all else equal.
Calculator
Risks
Models understate reality: unlock recipients often hedged or pre-sold via OTC, market makers step back into known supply events, and reflexive sentiment turns dilution into capitulation. Also confirm which unlock you’re modeling — team cliffs, investor tranches, and ecosystem releases hit differently and sometimes stack on the same date.
Worked example
A token with 200M circulating unlocks 50M for early investors: new float 250M, dilution 20% — one-fifth of every post-unlock token didn’t exist as sellable supply before. If recipients sell even half, that’s 25M tokens of pressure against whatever demand exists that week. Now layer vesting: the same project unlocks monthly for two years, each event 3–5%. Individually absorbable, cumulatively a permanent headwind — the price must climb continuous selling just to stand still. Enter any real unlock above and feel the arithmetic before the market teaches it.
Key numbers to remember
Dilution danger bands: under 3% negligible, 3–10% absorbable, 10–20% material, over 20% severe. Typical vesting: 1-year cliff then 2–3 year linear for teams; investors often shorter with earlier cliffs. Float ratio to watch: circulating ÷ total supply — under 30% means the unlock calendar dominates the investment case for years. Calendar first, chart second. Set alerts for major unlocks in positions you hold — surprises here are always a research failure, never bad luck.
Common mistakes
Reading “MCAP” headlines that use circulating supply while ignoring the fully-diluted overhang (the oldest trick in token marketing). Assuming unlocks are “priced in” — they rarely fully are, because recipients’ selling behavior isn’t public. Confusing linear vesting (absorbable drip) with cliff unlocks (event shocks). And holding through a major team unlock out of loyalty while insiders diversify — loyalty isn’t a position-sizing strategy.
FAQ
Do unlocks always crash price? No — strong demand absorbs them, and some unlocks go to locked stakers or long-term treasuries. But the base rate favors pressure; “priced in” is claimed far more often than true.
Team vs investor unlocks? Team unlocks signal confidence when staked/locked further, danger when sold. Investor unlocks after long lockups sell at high rates — their cost basis is fractions of yours.
Where are unlock schedules published? Vesting dashboards, project docs, and increasingly CEX research pages. Cross-check at least two sources; schedules change via governance.
Related
- Token Unlock · Vesting · Market Cap
- DEX Trading Masterclass · What Is DeFi? Walkthrough
- Solana audit — emission schedules meet validator economics.